"Moody's Investors Service" bildirir ki, Azərbaycanın kredit profili (Ba2 sabit) nisbətən yüksək ümumi dövlət borcunun və zəmanətlərinin həcmini, həmçinin kövrək bank sektorunu əks etdirir.
FED.az xəbər verir ki, Moody's həmçinin qeyd edib ki, ölkənin böyük maliyyə aktivləri kredit portfelinə əhəmiyyətli dəstək yaradır. Bu böyük aktivlər neft və qaz sektorundan əldə edilən gəlirlər ilə bağlıdır.
Moody's qeyd edib ki, neftin bahalaşması və qaz ixracının artması ÜDM-in artmasını daha da sürətləndirib. Agentlik Azərbaycanda 2018-ci ildə 2%, 2019-cu ildə 2% iqtisadi artım proqnozlaşdırır.
Moody's: Azerbaijan's credit profile reflects exposure to hydrocarbon sector, sizeable financial assets
Singapore, August 13, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the credit profile of Azerbaijan (Ba2 stable) reflects its relatively high levels of gross government debt and guarantees, and fragile banking sector.
These features reflect the legacy impact of the fall in oil prices and steep depreciation in the manat over 2014-16.
Conversely, the country's large financial assets provide significant support to the credit profile.
Moody's conclusions are contained in its annual credit analysis,"Government of Azerbaijan -- Ba2 stable".
This credit analysis elaborates on Azerbaijan's credit profile in terms of economic strength, low (+); institutional strength, low (-); fiscal strength, high; and susceptibility to event risk, moderate. These are the four main analytic factors in Moody's Sovereign Bond Rating methodology.
Moody's says that real GDP growth accelerated further -- after growing 0.1% in 2017 -- over the first five months of 2018 by 1.6% compared with the year-earlier period, and expects the economy to grow by 2% in 2018 and 3% in 2019. Growth will be aided by higher oil prices and increased gas exports.
However, limited prospects for economic diversification -- outside of tourism and transport and logistics -- present a further credit challenge, as the Azeri economy and the government's finances remain highly exposed to developments in the hydrocarbon sector.
Efforts to reorient the economy away from hydrocarbons has had limited success and the constraints on diversification will continue to limit prospects, in Moody's view.
Balancing these credit challenges are the country's net creditor status, owing to the sizable financial assets of the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (the sovereign wealth fund), which provide significant financial buffers; low government liquidity and external vulnerability risks; and domestic political stability thanks to the
government's deployment of hydrocarbon revenue.
The stronger cyclical performance expected for the economy in 2018 and 2019 will allow the government to rebuild some lost buffers during the oil price decline.
On the other hand, uncertainty over the exchange rate and the ongoing fragility of the banking system hinder policy transmission into the real economy.
The banking sector regulator, the Financial Market Supervisory Authority, has tightened prudential policy and pushed banks to raise internal risk management capacity and accounting standards, with the aim of increasing
the resilience of the banking sector to future shocks.
